Originally Posted by
boat stuck
I suspect it's not just about optics--Xi is probably genuinely concerned about mRNA vaccines becoming another "chokehold" import that the US can leverage in anti-China containment strategy.
After what happened with semiconductors, China is never going to sole-source anything critical from a US-controlled or US-influenced supplier again as a matter of national security.
If/when China develops a domestic mRNA vaccine, that's when China will clear Pfizer/BioNTech for import, since both sides know if there's a domestic alternative, the US government can't use the foreign vaccine as leverage.
Originally Posted by
STS-134
That's a pretty outlandish claim. Why would the US withhold better vaccines? So that Chinese people can get infected, then spread new variants around, and then have those variants come back into the US and cause another surge? Unlike semiconductors, a lack of vaccines in China has a risk to the public health of the people of the US. There is no motivation for the US to disallow import of vaccines.
Originally Posted by
moondog
Bear in mind that the Fosun project was a licensing deal. After the initial technology transfer (which TMK was not especially extortionate), the Chinese/Taiwanese were supposed to run the operation and at considerable scale. I surmise that saving face was the main reason it didn't pan out. Basically, Chinese companies were making some progress toward developing their own mRNA vaccines. When it became clear that wasn't in the cards, instead of acknowledging failure, Papa Bear simply pretended all was good. I try my best to use diplomatic language in this forum, by the way.
[mod edit] I work for one of the companies who is involved in Covid-vaccine manufacturing. mRNA vaccines are not that complicated and can easily be manufactured by multiple Chinese companies(I know the landscape quite well as I used to consult for the Chinese pharma industry).There have also been many manufacturing deals by both Moderna and Pfizer to produce vaccines at low cost and in local markets. These reasons led to such a rapid roll-out of the covid vaccines. A roll out who scale and speed is unprecedented.
Regarding the Chinese developing an mRNA vaccine, I have seen many products from both my company and other companies be blatantly ripped off under a new Chinese name after a licensing deal was signed with China. Most major companies now do the whole manufacturing process for their high value medicines outside of China since manufacturing in China requires you to reveal many trade secrets to the NMPA(the new name of the Chinese FDA). The fact the Fosun was even allowed to sign the licensing deal to manufacture means that Pfizer basically knows that they won't ever make any money in China.
I can't predict how the CCP will act but I can tell you with 99.9% certainty that if a Chinese company "develops" an mRNA vaccine that has high efficacy, they simply copied the Pfizer vaccine. I reckon the CCP is simply trying to find a way to do so without being caught or losing face or waiting out until the rest of the world stops caring about vaccines or COVID so that they can take a victory lap with their "new" vaccine.
Comparing the semiconductor industry to the pharma industry is ridiculous. Medicine is required for people's survival and any sort of restriction on it looks incredibly bad on the country or company that does so. I work with several products that my company(an American company that manufactures in the US) sells to US enemies including but not limited to Russia, Iran and Syria.