Originally Posted by
readywhenyouare
The airline industry is cyclical. For me, I'd rather have a steady and predictable salary throughout my career than these peaks and valleys. As it is now, you can expect to be paid like royalty during the good times and in the bad times you'll be lucky to not be furloughed for years.
Before the pandemic, I believed the industry was in the process of transforming from a cyclical to non-cyclical one. Given the favorable demographics, this may still transpire as expected, but, before the covid-stuff, I was convinced the “boom & bust” nature of the industry would soon be remnants of a prior era. Obviously, I miscalculated here, as I often do when trying to predict future events.
Originally Posted by
readywhenyouare
I'm just using these numbers as an example. Maybe you make $400,000/year for six years but then get furloughed with no income for three years in a recession. I'd rather have a $200,000 steady income and not need such drastic hits during low times. And that would keep more pilots from being furloughed as well.
Not to mention that it seems today's pilots are not looking at the past. The flight engineer is gone, the navigator is gone, and the radio operator is gone. All replaced by automated systems. If they keep driving labor costs up it will only lead to faster adoption of single pilot operations and ultimately fully autonomous planes. Airbus has already demonstrated the A350 could be the flown single pilot in the future. Those who claim it can never happen are kidding themselves.
Ah, perfectly reasonable. However, I would prefer to have $400K/year, mostly because I’ve always felt that a dollar today is worth considerably more than a dollar tomorrow. Events unfolding in future years is an abstract concept while money I receive today isn’t—it’s tangible and real. In other words, one’s next step is and will always the most important, much more so than steps 2, 3, and 4; this isn’t to suggest future planning shouldn't be a consideration, only to stress that if that first step is catastrophic, whatever comes after however well planned is moot--per Patton, “A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.”
For instance, what assurances that in subsequent years, I (I can only fly in my dreams and on Microsoft Flight Sim) won’t have a mishap preventing me from flying? Industry change such as automation, as you’ve saliently observed, rendering my piloting skills obsolete? Political and regulatory risks? Of course, to each his/her own, but I find it much more appealing to have the money now where I can control its fate, rather than rely on an external source that may or may not exist in the future in its current form.
It all comes down to this: when you have a chance to get it, take it. And, as jetsfan (must be brutal!) very poignantly observed, even if the pilots were to settle for less, they're going to get furloughed anyway if and when the market environment dictates.