Agree that “it’s confusing” and that “pre-approved” is not synonymous with (application) “approved”. There’s little rhyme or reason to “pop-up jail” and it’s different for MR cards and affiliated (Delta, Marriott, Hilton, etc.) cards. During the past 16 months I’ve received ineligible pop-ups for AmEx Marriott Biz card approximately 6-8 times (every 2-3 months) and AmEx Green Biz twice. In that same timeframe I’ve been instantly approved for 4-5 targeted NLL Biz Plats and 2-3 targeted NLL Biz Golds. Go figure.

No. But there are no adverse consequences of receiving the “ineligible” pop-up (other than not getting the card and/or SUB) and then terminating the application process. AmEx (fortunately) allegedly does not do a hard pull for existing customers, application can be (basically) withdrawn and one can apply again at any future date without AmEx considering the withdrawn application.

It will submit your application regardless of eligibility. If you got the pop-up it will submit your application without bonus eligibility. If you did not get the pop-up it will submit your application with bonus eligibility.