VegasGambler

I think that this is really it. UA"s published requirements to qualify for 1K in 2023 are off the charts compared to the competition. DL is still $15k. AA has gone to the LP scheme so it's hard to make a precise apples-to-apple comparison but even if you get all your LP from flying (which is clearly not what they want or expect you to do) the requirements to maintain EXP are still nowhere near UA's published 1K requirements.

I will go out on a limb and say that very, very, very few people spend the amount of money required for 1K status without significant OPM spend. You have to be pretty wealthy to spend that kind of cash on leisure travel per person.

So if OPM spend does not recover, UA is in a bit of a bind. Of course the people who will qualify anyway would like there to be fewer elites, but remember that elite status drives business (people with status are more likely to book in the airline where they have status, in order to get the benefits) so it's imperative to UA that there be some kind of "critical mass" of elites, or they lose business". It may be great for you if premium cabins are half full, making upgrades easy and every E+ middle seat is empty, but that's not good for UA.

UA seems to have gone all-in to woo the business traveler, at the expense of the leisure traveler. This is going to cost UA a lot of mid-tier business. Why fight to maintain my Plat status when I can get DL diamond for only a little more spend (possibly the same spend of you consider that award flights count for status). This had been my question all year, and the reason that I've decided to move my UA spend to DL next year. I'm not suggesting that UA will miss me as a customer (they won't) but how many more are in my situation? Maybe they can make that up (and then some) with fewer, but much more valuable, business travelers. But, if that OPM spend does not pick up it may put them in a tough spot.