I think this is one of the most interesting threads on FT right now.

Like others, I feel that the strict 0-covid strategy has run it's course. It was doable (and the right thing) till and including Delta, and I say that countries like NZ who were strict till Omicron and giving everyone a vaccination chance, but now have been moved to "living with covid" did the right thing.

China's policies right now have probably two problems:
-They've never really moved their mindset from "covid is the devil" away, like for example Singapore did once it became clear Omicron, while not being a joke, is mostly fairly mild even to unvaccinated people, and the health system can take care of those that DO need medical care. Singapore has both measurements up (including masks outside, and boy do they suck.. but it's not strictly enforced and I can tell you that after 9pm and some Tigers, less than half will wear their masks correctly.. in Singapore, of all the cities ) as well as plenty of testing, but manages easily to have 15k cases per day. Open borders to travel, and everything. I think that's the right approach if you don't fully want covid to go "all wild" (like, most western countries have decided) but don't want your economy to keep taking massive hits.

-Due to this ultra-strict 0-covid strategy, they are indeed using lots of ressources for testing / quarantine which could have been used instead to roll out a (well-working, like Moderna/BioNTech) booster shot for everyone asap. I certainly believe the Chinese pharmaceutical companies could have done so themselves (and I believe what moondog says it's true, they literally have ready-to-use factories) with some cooperation. THIS is the gamebreaker imho. China should have everyone getting their booster shots and then change their strategy, rather than building up the slow-but-steady wave that's now hitting them.

In short, a strategy that worked well for 2 years has run it's course, and I wonder if they're changing it at some time. It looks like for the CPC, it would feel like "swallowing it's pride" by doing so, which imho is nonsense, since Covid requires a flexible approach. I do understand they're afraid of long-term issues (Long covid) that aren't entirely documented, and indeed could be a rather nasty thing especially if you can keep getting re-infected with Omicron many times, but at some point, there simply isn't an alternative.

China right now seems to be becoming a giant "experiment", if it's possible to contain Omicron - and it looks more and more like those (like myself) said that it won't be reasonable possible are in the right. Yes, as others said before, it will be possible to even contain Omicron, but doing so would mean extremely strict measurements (not much unlike what Wuhan had to endure) - but for huge areas, and an almost complete travel-ban within China. And still cases will slip, since Omicron is such a tricky virus, great at hiding and spreading.

I'm looking at two/three outcomes right now:

-China eventually agrees that Omicron can't be reasonably stopped, uses full ressources for booster shots, and till done so forces old people into local "quarantine" (the most vulnerable persons) while the health system is managing to handle the cases, and eventually adapts a "living with covid" strategy alike many other Asian countries (Still measurements up, but not all-crazy ones)

-China locks down brutal on everyone left and right yet to no avail. Travel ban domestically, economy suffers a lot, people are getting fed up eventually at the permanent measurements, and after some months, it might get tricky. The whole world is taking hard due to China no longer providing reasonable on-time delivery of goods.

-The hard lockdowns do work somehow, the economy isn't hit so hard, and they're learning enough on how to contain Omicron like the variants up to Delta before. Eventually return to how it's been through most parts of 2020 and 2021, with China gradually getting "disconnected" from the world as everyone else is "living with covid".

I certainly hope for the first outcome. Second one would be bad for everyone across the world (We've seen some pre-lude of that the last two years), and third one would make China and the world understanding each other less, creating a non-covid and a living-with-covid world over time.

So what's your bets?