Doubtful. I think your far overestimating the importance of elite-level frequent guests to individual hotels. Additionally, any "mattress runs" that happen at the end of the year would already be factored into the revenue management algorithms of the software that is used to create projections.

Granted, the pandemic is likely wreaking havoc on the revenue management software. But, I doubt that the patterns this year are all that different from a "normal" year.