For an adult renewal application sent on or about August 4th or 5th, I would expect that it would most commonly be back by at least the end of this coming week if not even before. But that is based on applications that get to State for processing. With mail in the US being way messed up, such renewal application by mail is at the mercy not just of what State does but also with all that is going on with the USPS as of late.

Is that really what travel.state.gov said? Whatever language has been put up now, it should be way more nuanced than simply saying expedited service is not currently available. Expedited processing service is restricted; it is not entirely unavailable to all.