I think all that matters is the 25% capacity. They're basically doing that now indoors. The point is that they can keep tables 6 feet apart and operate at a much higher capacity, but the state won't let them. Personally, I think we'll see a lot that don't make it through the winter, or just completely close down in the winter with the hope of re-opening in the spring.

No question about it, it just adds unpredictability to the restaurant business at the worst possible time. Last winter, while not the coldest or snowiest, might be the longest I remember in my 30 years (current streak - about 36 total) in Chicago. It was cold and snowy in October and didn't let up again until the end of May. We bought our suburb house at the end of April and spent a month dismayed that we couldn't enjoy our yard with the 45-degree highs. Usually it seems we get either a warmer fall or spring -- just one of them, but it makes a difference for my mental health.

As you know, so many neighborhood places in Chicago (we still have our Lincoln Park condo too) have a seating capacity of 75 or fewer. But bar + standing room, you could easily have 150 people crammed into a small bar on a Saturday night, pre-pandemic. Do you know if the 25% capacity is based on the fire code capacity rules (i.e. the 150) or seating? That might help in the winter, as long as they can fit enough tables 6 ft apart.

My wife requires a heat lamp for outside dining somewhere around 69F.
Fortunately both of us have no concerns with eating inside, just the supply and demand issue.