Originally Posted by
freed0m
It is $12.5 risk with cancellation fee waiver. At worst, I just cancel and lose $12.5. There is no additional risk with my preferred dates or my preferred cabin, or ticket validity.
With recent datapoints of people getting the partner fee refunded too, your risk might be zero. Just remember to cancel your itinerary before it expires.
Originally Posted by
freed0m
SARS has a severe impact on air travel in Asia back then. It was cheaper cash upgrade, not cheaper premium tickets(ticket wasn't cheaper, just like now). Those upgrades were offered during check-in or just days before departure. Miles credit is likely based on original book class. So not really mileage arbitrage.
Yes, SARS severely impacted Asia but it didn't shut down international & domestic aviation around the world for months on end! A temporary hospital wasn't built in Central Park either. When travel is possible, the industry will be very much different than it was after SARS. Trying to extrapolate the later from the former, IMHO, is reckless. I couldn't find any data on the effect the Spanish Flu, had on transoceanic widebody aviation.
Originally Posted by
freed0m
$550 is a significant higher risk than $12.5. I will only selectively book those "error fare" level tickets in destinations i would like to go to.
I visit Capetown at least twice a year. I have a good friend there. I was supposed to be going back in April. Of course, that didn't happen. CX can't get me there. If fact, CX can't get me nor you anywhere until further notice. Unfortunately with HKG, that notice will be a long time coming for North America. When it does, how many hoops will you have to jump through, how many tests you will need to take, how many hours will it take to clear entry? Will you be comfortable with every move you make being tracked?
If both fares are refundable on airline initiated cancellations, how is the risk different? No need to answer. We view HKG differently, which is perfectly fine. HKG has the added stress of civil unrest and protests are still going on during COVID-19. I will wait to see if HKG is a place I will want to return to or transit through and book CX awards accordingly when lottery tickets look more like airline tickets.
Not everyone is long on MP miles and can book multiple itineraries speculatively. I don't think knowing what AS MP looks like as a OW partner before being able to travel to HKG is out of the realm of possibility. On that note, I think we have exausted our viewpoints; at least, I have mine. I hope your hedge is fruitful.
James