Originally Posted by
freed0m
It is $12.5 risk with cancellation fee waiver. At worst, I just cancel and lose $12.5. There is no additional risk with my preferred dates or my preferred cabin, or ticket validity.
Assuming you are MVPG or that Alaska still has COVID-related ticket cancellation fee waivers at the time you book and cancel. Right now the waiver only covers pre-May 31 tickets and that date hasn't moved in a while.
Originally Posted by
freed0m
It was cheaper cash upgrade, not cheaper premium tickets(ticket wasn't cheaper, just like now). Those upgrades were offered during check-in or just days before departure. Miles credit is likely based on original book class. So not really mileage arbitrage.
The problem's going to be on awards getting award availability to line up on multiple segments during rebooking, or getting to your original destination; what is VERY likely to happen is travel that used to be XXX(USA)-HKG-YYY(somewhere CX serves) may turn into XXX-QQQ(USA- CX dropped XXX-HKG, QQQ is their new NA gateway)-HKG-ZZZ (alternate destination CX still serves because they dropped HKG-YYY). Imagine that there's now also 12-16 hour stopovers that turned a fairly straightforward (if long) trip halfway around the world into a multi-day slog through airports. Yes, CX's HKG's lounges are fine. It's still going to turn travel into more of a grind even if you're in F/J if you're killing multiple days to get to India, South Africa, SE Asia, etc.
This may not be a problem for you in Asia if you're booking CX and do not care about getting to a CX North American gateway, but AS's primary customer base is North American.