Originally Posted by
Flying for Fun
I am not! You should worry that the validity of the ticket you are hedging now doesn't expire before you can utilize it.
The number of flights will be reduced because there won't be a demand for them. Not only are you gambling that your flight will operate on your preferred dates in your desired cabin or even a less favorable alternative, you are also gambling on whether or not you can board the flight if there is a flight to board. If you can't enter or transit HKG, CX awards are dead in the water.
It is $12.5 risk with cancellation fee waiver. At worst, I just cancel and lose $12.5. There is no additional risk with my preferred dates or my preferred cabin, or ticket validity.
Cheap upgrades, no award availability you say? Cash will be king when airlines are able to resume their scaled down versions of themselves. Attracting business travel will be a struggle; there will be less of that. Incentivizing leisure travelers with cheaper premium fares to fill seats in lieu of awards makes sence, but the can't/won't cut them off completely.
I value MP Miles at 2 cpm because that is what you can buy them for. A CX LAX-HKG return in J requires 100,000 Miles and about $150 in fees & taxes, ~$2150 in total? When it is possible to fly again, if the revenue fare, which comes with EQM & RDM is less than $2150, why would I want to redeem for an award?
As a UA Premiere platinum, I am tempted to book an itinerary for November, LAX-CPT. The K class ticket has a base fare of $47 return, $550 all-in. I can choose E+ at booking. It bypasses Europe and the Middle East. I think South Africa will open up long before HKG will.
James
SARS has a severe impact on air travel in Asia back then. It was cheaper cash upgrade, not cheaper premium tickets(ticket wasn't cheaper, just like now). Those upgrades were offered during check-in or just days before departure. Miles credit is likely based on original book class. So not really mileage arbitrage.
$550 is a significant higher risk than $12.5. I will only selectively book those "error fare" level tickets in destinations i would like to go to.