Flying for Fun

I am not! You should worry that the validity of the ticket you are hedging now doesn't expire before you can utilize it.

The number of flights will be reduced because there won't be a demand for them. Not only are you gambling that your flight will operate on your preferred dates in your desired cabin or even a less favorable alternative, you are also gambling on whether or not you can board the flight if there is a flight to board. If you can't enter or transit HKG, CX awards are dead in the water.

It will be interesting to see COVID-19 as a case study once it is under control. That is a long time off.

What do we know about SARS?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) appeared in 2002 and quickly spread around the world. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported that 8,098 people were infected in 26 countries, and that 774 died. (Other sources report slightly different numbers.)

Hong Kong was among the first cities affected by SARS, and its healthcare community suffered greatly from the disease. Some lessons from their experiences included recognition of the value of real-time information in a rapidly progressing epidemic with a large number of cases and the need for frequent patient updates, challenges of national efforts to maintain entry and exit health screening among international travelers, and implementation of home quarantine as an effective tool to interrupt SARS transmission.

Don't you think Hong Kong is in a "once bit, twice shy" situation?

I don't have to remind you of the COVID-19 numbers but I think we can both agree that COVID-19 is of a magnitude much greater than SARS.

SARS had significantly less impact on the airline industry than COVID-19 has and will continue to have.

Cheap upgrades, no award availability you say? Cash will be king when airlines are able to resume their scaled down versions of themselves. Attracting business travel will be a struggle; there will be less of that. Incentivizing leisure travelers with cheaper premium fares to fill seats in lieu of awards makes sence, but the can't/won't cut them off completely.

I value MP Miles at 2 cpm because that is what you can buy them for. A CX LAX-HKG return in J requires 100,000 Miles and about $150 in fees & taxes, ~$2150 in total? When it is possible to fly again, if the revenue fare, which comes with EQM & RDM is less than $2150, why would I want to redeem for an award?

As a UA Premiere platinum, I am tempted to book an itinerary for November, LAX-CPT. The K class ticket has a base fare of $47 return, $550 all-in. I can choose E+ at booking. It bypasses Europe and the Middle East. I think South Africa will open up long before HKG will.

James