Stranger ,
The Lev , since your posts are related to the Transat acquisition rather than fleet strategy, I'm replying here...
Originally Posted by
Stranger
Still, I highly doubt the merger will go through.
If the competition issue survives, AC will end up with a reasonably easy way out. Just look at the Boeing-Embraer deal that fell apart. Where it does not appear Boeing had a case at all. Except that the ceal did no longer make sense and that whatever penalty they would end up getting in court would still be better than the deal.
Where do you get that Boeing doesn't have a case at all? Have you read the Master Transaction Agreement between Boeing and Embraer? Or just Embraer's press release? These things are extremely complicated, with documents running to hundreds of pages. I've already done a lengthy analysis of AC's agreement with TS upthread. The bottom line is that for the moment they look kind of stuck, and will likely continue to be if Transport Canada overrules the Competition Bureau's objection. But if the regulators turn the deal down, it's quite easy for AC to walk.
Originally Posted by
The Lev
If it does go through, the risk is that Transat operates separately outside of Star Alliance so no more AQM, AQS and AQD on all those rouge routes that get taken over by Transat.
Let's hope not. With rouge, it has been seamless.
There's also a possibility that, if AC folds rouge in to TS and keeps TS out of *A, that it works out okay for AC status holders. For instance, QF runs Jetstar (JQ) pretty much separately, and QF is not part of OW. OW members can't earn miles towards BA, CX, etc from flights on JQ flights. But QF members can credit JQ flights to QF's program. I don't know what the rates are, but there are a few examples like that out there. So those of us who credit our flying to AC might do okay while those crediting to *A partner programs might not.
But who knows.