Originally Posted by Boghopper

And the calculation is absurd. Many GS are locked in by Corp contracts, and many more by fortress hubs. And don’t forget the benefits. Add that up and the $1 billion estimate is a joke. And those will reconsider their options with the new year. Meanwhile those with options will consider alternatives this year to prepare for next with uncertain status prospects. Yes, yes, nothing is guaranteed but it’s pretty clear the 50k threshold has been proved out. UA obviously can’t set a revised one since the existing one doesn’t “exist”, so the mystery/uncertainty works against them and their only real options are to extend it or just keep gaslighting us. Add in the annoyance that everybody else got an extension, as did AA CK, and it seems like a bad call on UAs part. What’s the real cost that a few undeserved GS get handed out for a year? Seems like less than the loss of GS, who have got to be worth lots of $$$ and will be especially valuable because they’re more likely to fly early and often the rest of the year.

like I’ve said before, GS is a program to catch and retain HVFs, and not just for a year. So with a non myopic perspective is 2019 or 2020 flying a better indicator of how much a given customer will fly in 2021? I’ll bet that’s the calculus AA made now that Scott ”FFers are deadbeats” Kirby has moved on. And when my wife starts scheduling flights again we’ll be calling AA to see what they have to offer a 70-80k GS that UA doesn’t seem interested in keeping.

If UA extends GS she’ll be on UA for the foreseeable future (the exact opposite of what’s been suggested). If they don’t they create a free agent. It’s that simple. The fundamental problem is that they can’t incentivize flying with an uncertain reward, esp since the fallback is 1k which has already been guaranteed. What UA may end up getting from her is low roller 1k based on domestic flights while she books the high $$ fares elsewhere and gets a better product. In her experience on domestic UA doesn’t really seem to care she’s GS anyway. I don’t think that’s what they want, but I’m not a marketing supragenius like they are.

The ironic thing is it’s looking like she’s about to get a promotion that will result in even more flying and maybe hitting 50k or so for the year anyway. She’s already at 15 or so.

Originally Posted by fumje

Technically every subgroup is a fraction of the overall population.