Originally Posted by
LondonElite
Near the peak? I’d say maybe a month or two from it.
I would have to agree with OP that this is near the peak.
Using SARS as the roadmap (Note - COVID-19 is very similar to SARS), SARS peaks around end of April/beginning of May.
But at the same time, COVID-19 impacts more than SARS. So its impact will last longer than SARS. I would say everything will start getting back to normal sometimes around October.
Originally Posted by
Mama
But realistically, if countries still require 14 days self quarantine upon arrival, I don't see many people willing to get on planes and travel
The problem is not the quarantine. The real issue is countries will start limit travel in light of COVID-19. While we are not yet certain the virus origin, rest assured that it is conclusive to say the virus spread from Mainland China (Wuhan) to other places. The Schengen's open border has made this even worst. The U.S. leniency with European countries also takes a big part of it.
I would not believe that in the post-COVID-19 world, no country will resume the way how we travel before. As an example, many measures adopted post-9/11 are still here and they have been tightened even more. The travel industry will not be recovered at least years after COVID-19. At the minimum, the lenient visa policies towards Chinese (Mainland) citizens will disappear (and the Chinese has contributed significantly for the last few years).
Back to the story, if UA does not have the guarantee from Apple to fill up the B772/W, PVG won't be resumed so quick. But don't forget - Apple's productivity is somehow harmed by this. So if you say Apple's travel volume will return back to similar level, it would be a lie (as I assume Apple is looking for alternative sites already).