SEA_Tigger

Abby's first post echoed quite strongly with me. And while Punki and I don't see eye to eye much on the issue of First Class upgrades (and not because of our height differences ), she does have a very good point in that when AS went to "unlimited upgrades for elites", they sowed the very "Seeds of Destruction" that have come back to haunt them now. The same seeds that may come back to haunt every other major that has done so (and UA is about the only hold-out).

When it was only "certs or miles" (like it remains on UA), MVPGs, MVPs, and regular customers had to make the decision on when and where to fly First Class. I bet a number of those people flew Economy on AS, saving their certs for the "special" trips. I myself flew AS economy on flights under an hour and upgraded on my two hour runs. That AS used to offer the 50% First bonus for U tickets was even more gravy. Between the First mileage, on-line booking, and kiosk checkin bonuses, you almost earned a free upgrade for every SEA-LAX/SNA/SAN round-trip!

Then AS decided to allow any MVPG and MVP to upgrade any fare, free of charge. They also recinded the First Class mileage bonus for upgraded flights and doubled the mileage redemption levels. That tossed most of us non-elites into the back, because it just wasn't worth it or even if it was, it took a lot more trips in Economy to generate the miles to do it, so they were no longer effectively competing for upgrade seats.

So MVP(G)s who flew 50% or more in coach were now flying in First a lot more. Sometimes all the time. They got used to it. They began to accept this as "the right way" to be treated by AS for their loyalty.

AS soon found out that this new program resulted in higher costs. Every First Cabin on every flight was going out 100% and the costs of providing the service increased. Yet revenues had not. So AS started to cut back on the benefits. Still, it didn't stem the tide.

AS had two choices - drop First Class or try and make it generate more revenue. They did informal polls, found their elites were aghast at the idea of no First Class, and implemented Option 2.

Now, if the certs/miles was still the "upgrade path", and you offered complimentary upgrades for Q+ fares, you would probably have not heard much of a whisper out of AS elites. If anything, you might have heard some "huzzahs!" as it meant that when out of miles/certs, they could spend more and still confirm into First.

But the elites had come to accept "free upgrades from any fare" as an entitlement/right for their patronage, and taking that way frosted lots of them. So they either go to UA/AA (and use certs/miles [AA EXP-excepted]) or CO/NW and continue to enjoy "free upgrades" on any fare.

But like the decisions to launch transcon service, the decision to make all elite upgrades free from any fare had unseen consequences. And once AS realized the...mistake...they had to back-track and no customer likes it when benefits are taken away from them, regardless of the industry.


I agree.

AS First is about $100 more then AS Y on many of the routes I have looked at. Now, it is quite true that AS Y is many multiples of what Y is on WN and B6, but it is also many multiples less then what the majors want. AS Y will usually barely get you restricted mid-tier Economy on the majors.


Pricing pressures are very tight, to be sure. Even with more reasonable Y and F fares, a lot of people cannot or will not pay more then the "bare minimum". Yet AS cannot offer Low Cost Carrier pricing without being a Low Cost Carrier, which they are not. And even if they can somehow transform themselves into AA/DL/CO/NW's version of UA's "TED", without actually being a part of those airlines, they risk losing that alliance with another carrier who can offer them a better deal. And when that happens, what does AS have to fall back on? Do they just re-trench in Mexico and Alaska, offering a few connections from SEA, PDX, LAX, and SFO to those destinations?