FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Which are the airlines most likely to go under in the coming 3 months?
Old Mar 17, 2020, 3:30 am
  #3  
GUWonder
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Most of the airlines impacted by travel bans in their home and bread and butter markets are going to struggle big time in the absence of government intervention of some sort or another.

I would be amazed if Norwegian makes it without a government bailout of some sort or another. Some of their flying to repatriate people to Norway may help with laying the groundwork to be included in a bailout.

Governments driving interest rates down toward zero (or even negative) may help keep some airlines alive in the more advanced economies of the world, but that kind of approach just wouldn't be possible everywhere and it only sort of works to deal with the capital costs of the equipment. But still then there is the labor and other variable costs for the airlines to also cover. Even with massive layoffs, the airlines face labor costs from the layoffs ... at least under many current circumstances.

Airbus and Boeing and their legion of suppliers are also going to get nailed by the current environment.

There is a reason that so much market capitalization has been wiped out by the decline of financial markets in the past several weeks and become more extreme in the past several days. A lot of firms and their employees are going to be struggling until there is confidence that the coronavirus situation is under control and not a great risk anymore and people get back to more historically normal behavior patterns.
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