Originally Posted by
enemigo
Magnitudes greater than 5000 people though for any decent degree of confidence. Equally changes in care protocols as time progresses and we understand the disease more may change the figure a fair bit...
I think a bit lower down from your comment there's a post from
nk15 which shows the difference between South Korea, Wuhan Princess and Chinese data samples on death rates. This shows you how diverse the death rate range can be- from 0.7% to 2.3% dependent on where it was caught. This illustrates the difficulty in estimating at the current stage.
Germany’s mortality rate is 0% with 1018 positive tests and 218 new cases today. The US has slightly less than half the number of identified cases and 19 fatalities. Bad luck (hasn’t hit a German nursing home... yet?)? Better healthcare system? France, next door, has about the same stats as Germany (1126 cases), but already 19 fatalities...
I am not an infectious disease expert, but I agree that drawing conclusions from individual countries or regions at this time is probably fairly unreliable given the “small” numbers and different approaches to care and testing.