FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - AY Finnair forum Quiz, games, jokes -thread
Old Feb 7, 2020, 7:39 am
  #37  
UNC
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Programs: AY+
Posts: 16
Originally Posted by FFlash
Heh, while on games, I love Bayesian probability, there is nothing wrong in believing in it!
If throwing dice and getting 9/10 times number 6, I believe the probability of getting number six is higher that 1/6!
What you are describing is actually a frequentist view. Bayesians would likely have a high-kurtosis prior for theta (assuming bernoulli trials) centered around 1/6. The posterior would thus still be around 1/6 despite the likelihood of the observations.
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