Originally Posted by
tods27
All of this analysis is great, except that we don't actually have all the data that United does. It's easy to say that they haven't considered some use cases, but we really don't know. Maybe they have and decided that the number of affected fliers isn't that big. I'm not saying that they have a fantastic strategy, just that we, as usual, aren't privy to the tradeoffs that they analyzed. It's also good to remember that FTers don't necessarily represent the general flying population.
I think you’re giving UA too much credit. Even if they did program a formula to allow for adjustments up or down based upon perceived human behavior, I suspect that they vastly under-estimated the drop in business by customers who care about value for their money and are not bound by corporate contracts. I perceive UA as a company that is hamstrung by hubris. And hubris interferes with good judgment.
I flew UA because overall they were a good value for the money. For certain flights they were not, but the value of 1K benefits outweighed my better judgment for those particular flights. Once I drop down to Gold or Platinum, I won’t do dumb things like pay for a $2,700+ Y fare to EZE where 3 out of 4 upgrades failed (and both Polaris legs) when for $300 more I could have confirmed J the whole way on a competitor. That’s what I would have done if I hadn’t needed that flight to re-qualify for 1K.