Great discussion and do hope UA Insider is reading it and it is in alignment with their thinking at the time they implemented the changes.

With that said I do think they have used a static forecasting method rather than a dynamic forecasting method.

Static forecasting methods are the beign of the US federal government forecasts (may apply at the state level as well but I am only aware of the federal impacts). It is one of the problems that many bureaucrats have - they understand how to forecast with fixed assumptions but forecasting in behaviour completely stumps them.

Hopefully United did use dynamic forecasting methods and What If analysis. My belief is they did not as the incentive to stay with United is very limited but then I am also from the business school that it is easier to keep an existing customer than find a new customer.

My only puzzlement in all this is if UA is seeking 20 cents per mile, the BE model drastically reduces this margin. So they plan to fill the seats they cannot sell at 20cents or more with BE? I personally pay more than BE but not 20 cents.

I know United does not want my business as I am in the middle of the two data points. However, an airline (or three) is going to value my 125,000 - 150,000 BIS miles in 2021 it just is not United (my recent message from United reminded me I have been in the MP program since the mid 1990s and have been 1K for more than 10 years).