Originally Posted by
WillCAD
Is there a schedule of attacks published somewhere that I could reference? I'd like to know when an attack is due so I can schedule around it.
I agree with Boogie Dog - the concept that we are "due" for an attack has no more credence than the idea that we are "due" for a civil war, a 9.0 earthquake, or an extinction-level event. It's a silly superstition about random natural or man-made events.
I doubt that. The trend of terrorist attacks in the US has been toward mass shootings, while Europe has seen an uptick in stabbings and vehicle attacks.
But the next attack on commercial aviation that catches us completely off guard and surprises the general public in the same way that 9/11 did will be something based outside of the airport proper, something like the laser toner cartridge bombs of 2010. It will involve an attack vector that's currently not thought of, like perhaps poisoning the food of an entire group of flights or shooting down a plane with an improvised SAM. Drone strikes (i.e. deliberately imitating a bird strike using a drone or drones) are a possibility, but the technical difficulty of these very high, and the potential effectiveness is unpredictable.
Anything coming from inside the airport, either from passengers, flight crew, or airport employees, is far less likely because inside the airport is where we are looking. The next sucker punch, just like 9/11, will come from a place where we are not currently looking.
I think their statements are more along the lines of hyperbole in terms of a schedule. I think they are just operating with a natural human tendency to expect that something is going to happen
at some point, and that preparing for that eventuality is a reasonable step in life.
I do not subscribe to the firm belief that we are overdue for an attack, or that we are specifically going to be a focus in targeting because it has been so long - I do, however, believe that preparing for emerging threats, while keeping up with older threats is integral to continuing to prevent large scale attacks. In that I encompass the entire security oriented .gov groups, not just TSA in the checkpoints or bag rooms. TSA and these other security groups are "game-planning" and training for things that have not happened, so they can try to prevent it from becoming a more serious threat moving forward. The training we do at TSA now, is light years ahead of the training we used to get, it is more in-depth, it covers a much larger spectrum of thinking (including interpersonal skills). You may not see a difference, but as an insider, I have seen a serious maturing of the workforce and training over my time here. One thing that is certain about the world, is that things are always changing, at TSA, at DHS, at my home, and your home.