Originally Posted by
lsquare
Oh that's really interesting. Are HKG-CAN flights even that important since you said there are two daily flights? I mean, given the bullet train connection between HKG and CAN, I'm not even sure why this is such a big deal? Perhaps CZ and CX can work something out if this is such a big deal? Is a CZ-CX JV even feasible?
Bus or ferry is probably easier. However, most ferry only goes to Shenzhen and Dongguan area, very few goes all the way beyond Nansha (and that's not even close to Guangzhou city centre).
The bullet train isn't really convenient for anyone who wants to use CAN or HKG as a transit point as you need to first transit at Kowloon West/Guangzhou South and then change to the Airport Express/2nd Line. For people living in Guangzhou to use HKG as a transit, they need to take the metro to Guangzhou South first and then take the bullet train to Kowloon West and transfer to Airport Express. An easier way would be to take the train from Guangzhou East and head directly to Hung Hom, but you will still need to make a transfer to Airport Express (via Austin/Kowloon).
The other way is even worse as you need to get to Guangzhou East or Guangzhou South via the train at Hung Hom or Kowloon West, and then take the 3rd line (2nd line and transfer to 3rd line if using Guangzhou South). Why did I say it's even worse? If you use Guangzhou South it's a big detour and if you use Guangzhou East good luck getting on the train with bags as the 3rd line is almost always packed.
The problem is never the transit passengers between CAN-HKG, it's the beyond transit passengers utilizing CAN or HKG to head to their destinations. Since CX/CZ hubs are so close to each other, if oneworld has both CZ and CX as the options to transit, many passengers that use CX now may head to CZ as CZ almost always have cheaper fares for transit passengers. I don't see any way the two airlines can work together (especially when one is heavily subsidized).
CAN-HKG use to be a route served with multiple daily flights thanks to no direct flight between Taiwan and China. Since cross strait flight commenced in 2008, the number of daily flights have dwindled to the point where China Southern completely axed the route. Cathay Dragon use to have 4 daily flights and now down to just two to serve connections (one in the morning and one in the evening). I believe CZ use to have around 4 daily flights as well (now none).
The other market I didn't mention is USA/EUR/AUS/NZL/SEA-CAN/HKG/PKX-CHINA DOMESTIC. If CZ joins oneworld I find KA having hard time to survive on those China routes with both CAN and PKX capturing all the domestic market.