FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - China Southern leaves SkyTeam, planning to join oneworld
Old Dec 18, 2019 | 11:01 am
  #16  
moondog
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Community Builder
Community Influencer
All eyes on you!
25 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 46,234
There a number of PKX threads on FT now, so I'm uncertain of which ones I've posted to, but allow me to explain my view on the situation:
-CZ can easily move airplanes from CAN/WUH/URC in order to dominate PKX in a major way
-AA and BA want this because it will finally give them a way to actually serve 2nd and 3rd tier cities in China; CX/KA wants to play this role, but we all know that they don't play it very well
-BUT, CZ isn't going to seriously ramp up PKX until people get used to PKX
-we've all read about how great PKX --including ground transportation-- is, but these are still largely untested waters
-my personal prediction is that PKX (and CZ) will be a HUGE success within the course of the next 5 years
-I can't foresee CZ ever joining OW
*they are unwanted by CX (this is an understatement)
*they are the largest airline in China
*they have 40% of the slots at the (soon to be) largest airport in China
*strong partnerships AA, BA, AY, and QF
*why would they pay alliance dues when one of the founding members of the alliance despises them?
*I honestly believe that there is a good chance that CZ will be the largest airline in the world fairly soon IFF PKX catches on
*we think of them as a Guangzhou airline, and Guangzhou works fine for Europe-SE Asia and Europe-Australia. Beijing is a MUCH more value asset than Guangzhou

In closing, if people end up preferring (or at least being impartial) PKX v PEK, this ship will sail. That having been said, CZ is not going to blanket Asia with PKX flights until it gets some some data on the viability of PKX. I firmly believe that their plan (including the JVs) will work in due course, but let's not expect flights to places like Changsha until the airport itself gets traction.

Last edited by moondog; Dec 18, 2019 at 11:12 am
moondog is online now