i don’t think anyone can tell you that. There are many reasons fares change. Sometimes, the airline sells out of the inventory and so goes to the next bucket. Sometimes, they sell the inventory, then replace it so the same fare re-appears. Sometimes, they add or pull a fare, in either a higher or lower bucket, meaning the fare goes up or down. Sometimes there is inventory, but not a fare filed, then they do. Sometimes, there is a fare filed but no inventory. Sometimes, inventory is available on a nonstop but not when ‘married’ from your origin - sometimes it’s the opposite. Many reasons fares can go up or down, and Im sure the data could be pulled to give an aggregate percentage, but I’d guess it wouldn’t mean anything in practice since it’s going to vary so much by route, date, etc.

in other words, fares/inventory change all the time, for various reasons. Farelock is not going to be a predictor of any of this. IME, anyway, farelock is pretty consistently offered at booking as long as it’s all UA/UAX metal.