Airlines would love to fill planes with nothing but high-fare/premium cabin passengers. And indeed, these are their best customers. But there aren’t enough of them to fill planes.

Loyalty programs were aimed at what were once considered an airline’s second-best customers - passengers who didn’t necessarily spend top-dollar, but who flew relatively often and could be enticed to direct that steady flow of spend into one place. And this makes sense, because premium passengers already get almost all the perks commonly associated with elite status just by virtue of the tickets they purchase.

Airlines have recently signaled that it is not worth their time to attract these sorts of customers. They’re banking on once-a-year flyers paying fee after fee, and also making a bet that business travelers flying coach are going to have to continue to travel, and for the most part have to consider schedule first. This means airlines aren’t really scared of passengers leaving, especially in an industry that has been so heavily consolidated and where the major players essentially copy each other. They’re calling the bluff that the grass is greener.

This will probably continue to work for them, at least as long as the economy remains strong. But frequent flyer programs, in the form that we once knew them, have one foot in the grave.