Yes. This is how it works.

Based on the other feedback here, sounds like it's very low odds at this point. That said, you never know as people do change flights and people do misconnect, but if you are the lucky winner, it will almost definitely not happen until right before the flight at the gate.

The best source of info is Expertflyer, but you need a paid subscription to access data like this. You can sign up for a free trial as well.