Originally Posted by canopus27

In general, the fact that there are empty business seats available does not mean that anyone will get an op-up .... AC will only do that if the flight is oversold (or, in the good old days, for weight & balance - generally of the Embraer's). Now perhaps your flight was oversold, I don't know .... but even that wouldn't have been enough to guarantee that they'd bump people up, as it's certainly possible for there to be misconnects (etc).

I've played the same game as you did, and bet in the opposite direction - I chose not to put an upgrade request in, because I thought the flight was oversold and I was hoping to get an op-up .... and the flight has departed with empty seats in J and me in Y. So it's not a for-sure thing ....