They will regret it BIG time if they move to a total model of no aspirational redemptions and a fixed point value.
Many guests will just move to use Hotels.com with its 10% back. Hilton’s hotels will be crying out blue murder as some of the commissions are genuinely huge, especially on bundled packages.
No more need to stay loyal encompassed by a proliferation of weakening Elite benefits, such as the dire breakfast offerings in their biggest market; US. I see free Wi-Fi message on the booking sites too. There are threads all the time on how poor reception is for Diamonds in the US and when your points are worth an fixed amount, that can be devalued at any time...
Who would bother? Just book through Hotels.com, get your free night that you can use at hundreds of thousands of hotels worldwide.
“Stop clicking around”, was in my view, a flop because the chains are just not powerful enough to fight off the online bookers. They still drive a huge portion of their sales and it’s often better for the consumer as they offer a wide selection of smaller chains or independent hotels that are so often far better than the US corporate hotel in town.