Not neccesarily...
if all the basic rooms are booked solid, and you have also booked a basic room but it’s 5pm and you still have not arrived and someone walks up and asks for a room but isn’t willing to purchase a suite and that’s all that is left, you best believe the front desk agent will give your booked room away and once you show up you will then be assigned to a suite.

The hotels do what’s financially in best interest for them, let’s not kid ourselves here, as does every other business. It’s just random as you don’t have access to their database of how many of each room type are booked and how many of those booked rooms have checked in already there’s really no way to manipulate the system in your fair without this knowledge.