For actual stays I think it's hard to beat Hilton and IHG for earn and burn rates on paper, but the much better award availability and status benefits associated with Marriott and Hyatt status have always put both at the top ahead of IHG and Hilton for me. IHG was never as bad as Hilton regarding availability, but it just didn't have many destination properties that peaked my interest for vacation travel and when it did, availability wasn't as good as Hyatt and Marriott.

Right now, I'd rate Marriott at the top ahead of Hyatt and I don't think it's all that close. Even with all the issues, the rates and award availability at top properties (at least through March) are pretty unbelievable and the earnings potential for stays is still very high. After the new category and peak seasons come on board in 2019-2020, I will probably move Hyatt pretty close to Marriott, but I still think Marriott is on top because of its larger footprint, slightly better earning proposition on stays, and the 5th night free on redemptions. My views are definitely skewed because most of my redemptions are at high end properties and/or during peak periods so award availability is probably more important to me than most.

I was recently looking at award nights in San Francisco for a very busy period coming up (most decent properties were $800+, St. Regis was 1200 and Ritz was 1100). I found availability at a number of decent properties using both Marriott and Hyatt points, but couldn't find anything with IHG except for airport hotels and the only Hilton I found for points in the city was a Hampton Inn (granted it was a nice one that was selling for $820/night, but still). I know this is just one example and I'm sure there our counter-examples, but at least in my experience this seems to be true more times than not when comparing the programs during peak redemption times or in vacation destinations. On an ordinary weekend, the values and earn and burn rates may be pretty close or even favor Hilton or IHG, but during the times when points are really valuable to me, it always seem like IHG and Hilton fall way behind both Marriott and Hyatt.

But as with most things, the answer depends mostly on you and how you like to earn points (stays vs. CC) and where you like to spend them. Marriott's probably better for most people, but I can definitely see situations where IHG and/or Hilton might make more sense. Hyatt is sort of it's own animal and takes a person that mostly stays in the US and in larger metropolitan areas, but if the footprint works it's still an awesome program with incredible value.