Originally Posted by LapLap

fandi, what I have seen over the years is that the budget hotels and hostals (such as the Sakura) require that you book them months in advance and they book up completely in peak periods. The prices tend to be constant.
On the other hand, more upscale hotels will only show what are effectively rack rates this far in advance. Very often, usually three or two months before, those upscale hotels will release deals with their internet partners and you then find much more economic options on booking sites. I haven’t really ever paid more than 13,000yen for a double (two people) room in Tokyo. I’m not against hostals, but jet lag manifests itself in forcing me to go to the toilet during the night even more than usual. I really appreciate ensuite bathrooms.

By all means make a refundable booking, but you may want to wait at least until January or February before you completely lock yourself in to an itinerary. Am happy to help if you want to share your dates and budget.