AMEX is starting to respond to CFPB complaints. They admit that the absence of the pop-up does not guarantee bonus. The below sounds like a standard copy-and-paste response; I never had a Gold or PRG yet they mention it.
"While you may not have seen a pop-up confirming your ineligibility for the Welcome offer, the terms of the application stated, the Welcome offer is not available to applicants who have or have had this Card or the Premier Rewards Gold Card. We may also consider the number of American Express Cards you have opened and closed as well as other factors in making a decision on your welcome offer eligibility."
Anyone here received a different/successful outcome?