Lots of hyperbole here. Bottom line - I think we can all agree it is difficult to confirm a SWU in advance. The OP asked if it has always been like this, and the answer is NO. Prior to the Discount Dougie era, SWU's regularly cleared in advance, and often at booking for me as an EXP.
That said, if you are willing to gamble, which I understand you are not, SWU's still generally clear. It is less of a gamble for sure than UA, where they'll sell your upgrade to somebody for $9.99 over a 1K.