Wondering if a wise mind can help?

I’m Plat Pro but live in Australia so I have no experience of domestic upgrade odds, last-minute J demand, or general load factors on these routes.

Two of us are traveling with one-year old lap infants, so the upgrade makes a HUGE difference. Need to book BOS-LAX midweek — Tue, Wed or Thu, Oct 23-25 — and LAX-HNL on Fri, Sat or Sun, Oct 25-27. Can take any day or flight time. Just want to maximize chances of at least one of us clearing.

My intuition tells me Wednesday evening might be a solid bet for the transcon (or Wed morning?) and Saturday evening might be best for Hawaii. My eyes don’t detect a consistent pattern on Expertflyer, but yours might.

a) does a lap infant decrease my chances?
b) any experience with what time of day clears best for Boston to LA?
c) is LA to Honolulu a good bet, as a leisure route? Would OGG be better? When do elites leave for vacation, and when shouldn’t I?

Any help appreciated. Thanks!