Exp with ~28k
Sun 7/29 BUR-PHX no upgrade, BUR-IND at ~48
Thu 8/2 IND-PHX no upgrade, PHX-BUR at ~100 but missed connection after detour to TUS and back to PHX
Fri 8/3 PHX-SAN at door close, SAN-LAX no upgrade
Sun 8/5 LAX-DFW waitlisted SWU but complimentary hit instead at 48, DFW-IND at 47 also complimentary

It's been all over the map. Flights I expect to upgrade I don't, tough flights (DFW-LAX 789) I do. I blame it on leisure travelers.