Originally Posted by
Fabo.sk
I got an upgrade on my first AF flight while Gold (preceded by one KL non-full flight), but then I wasn't the only one and the flight was actually full.
I suppose if "time since last upgrade" factors into the algorithm, it might mean that fresh Golds would tend to get their first upgrade fairly soon.
That was my feeling too.
On a related note, I was upgrade twice while Silver intra-EU (thrice if you count Delta). Once on a AZ flight MUC - FCO and another time on a KL flight OTP - AMS, both overbooked from what I remember.