What if UA showed the full upgrade list with people who are waiting, in the exact order they would clear? Isn't that better?
I feel like a lot of the "calculations" everyone's making here is because the actual list with people waiting isn't reliable since it only shows people who are checked in.
For example, if at T-24, I look at the standby list, it shows very few people on the list. Let's say I go ahead and check-in. I might be a 1K at position 2.
But if I check a few hours later, some GS and some other 1K get added to the list, only because they are now also checked in.
I personally would prefer UA show me the upgrade standby list at T-24 and tell me exactly what position I'm in. That would be a better way of telling me my upgrade odds, wouldn't it?