Originally Posted by
DetroitFlyer
I don't think this is even close to an accurate measure of your chances. How does the fact that showing 10 people cleared out of 20 seats (at say 18 hours before departure) give you any indication that you're likely to clear?
You don't have any info of the statuses and fare classes of those who did clear. Nor when those people cleared. Half of those 10 could have cleared at booking with a GPU.
Seriously? You must not spend enough time on FT...
If you fly enough CPU eligible routes, you can gather more than enough data points to form some semblance of an indication. As a Silver, I was usually in the bottom 25% of the upgrade list - and that held true for elite heavy routes like SFO<>ORD, as well as routes like ORD<>GRR. As a 1K, I'm routinely in the top 25% of the upgrade list. Couple those data points with my purchased fare class, and my upgrade confidence gets even stronger. I have cleared into first on all B, M and E fares I've purchased. I upfared on EWR-SFO to an E fare and my RPU cleared ahead of everyone else...
All that said, knowing how many people are on the upgrade list, how many have cleared, and how many open seats are left, I can make a pretty educated guess as to whether or not my CPU will clear.
I echo @
jsloan - the more info the better.