Common sense and logic. Why would Marriott downgrade a hotel that's a cat 8/9 (40/45k in old program) all the way down to a cat 5 (35k) in the new program. Their cat 8/9s are the highest categories they have (outside of RC tiers) so it stands to reason that they will at least be a 6, 7, or even an 8 in the new program.