FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Cathay Pacific losses snowball to HK$1.25 billion, first back-to-back loss in 71-year
Old Mar 14, 2018, 6:39 pm
  #21  
peasant
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: China
Posts: 1,553
Hedging is when you match assets/ liabilities or costs/ revenues. I.e. I sell a ticket to travel in 3 months, I don't know what the fuel price will be in 3 months, but I can lock it it by buying forward. As an airline sells tickets only a year in advance, buying fuel much further forward than that is a bit odd. You would expect a fuel purchase book to rise from about 0 a year ahead to 100% on day of departure

You could argue that by locking in fuel prices for a longer period they then have certainty over what price to sell tickets at - but the ticket price is market driven. What CX did was buy forward four years - so not hedging but a big macro view that oil prices would not stay low.

So, yes, you can say that hedging is not stupid, but what CX did was a macro gamble.
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