Originally Posted by
3Cforme
That's an interesting thesis. Those generally aren't Spirit/Frontier/Allegiant markets, so he's implying that AA and DL are putting it to small-city travelers and the avg fare will be rich.
While UA may not face much direct route competition from those cities, it will find itinerary competition with 2-class planes from some (of the several I checked) airports on your list. A Delta CR7 from ELM isn't great in coach but it will offer an F cabin, E+, wifi, and power to F and Comfort+. Time it right and ride in a Delta MD-90 from BIS, or a 717 from CHO.
If we accept that CR2s aren't the end game, does the current pilot agreement allow for enough E75s, etc.?
To address the last, first, I don't think the current contract allows for more E75s, and I don't think it even allows for all of the CRJ-200s UA wants to add, unless Kirby can get some scope relief (which he was pitching to the analysts on the Call, not sure if that will get him anywhere with the pilots....
) or UA opts for a new small plane. I think the bottom line is that Kirby needs to ASAP either (a) order some A319s or (b) order the C-series.
I think Kirby is right on the problem - UA is getting too little domestic feed, shrinking, lead to more shrinking, as many on this Board Kept saying.... However if UA reenters markets or enters markets already served by a network carrier (AS, AA, DL, in places B6) the available traffic is a lot of one off traffic,
but also those who are business travelers and travel often. It is the latter (the person logging 25-50-75+K miles a year) that you want to get,
they pay more, yet the example you give proves the problem with Kirby's CRJ-200 play: FFers hate them. So the passangers that you most want to get/need to get, are the ones least likely to pick UA and its single class 50 seaters over OALs. Plus most of the FFers already are with AA,DL, etc., and to get them to switch UA would have to offer them something better, enough to move.
I think the result of this is discounting to try to make up for United's inferior service, but there is only so much discouting that you can do w/o a pure fare war breaking out.