I agree that she did not commit a criminal act. Accidents are not crimes. However, I do believe she was negligent. Whether she would lose in a civil court is useful only for debate here because I don't know who she is, and I wouldn't bother going to the expense of suing her even if I did know.
I should add that I didn't actually see the bag fall. I didn't see anything until I saw blood.
It was other passengers and two flight attendants who made these observations, and I have no reason to believe that they want to make some stranger a scapegoat.
My lesson learned is to never put my child in an aisle seat, or if I have no choice (e.g., a 767), make him sit on my lap when the plane reaches the gate.