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Old Nov 3, 2017 | 4:47 pm
  #432  
farnorthtrader
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Originally Posted by Voodoo Daddy
That's a generalized statement based on your specific experiences. For those of us who don't travel to Italy or Austria, we may not be able to get the same redemption values you do. The other factor is the longer we hold points, the more their value decreases (much faster than the rate of inflation of the USD), so there's an incentive to burn them when it makes vague sense to do so. I value these points at 0.35 cents per point. If I happen to get 0.5 to 0.6, I'm very happy.
Didn't mean to generalize from these specific redemptions, just pointing out that I am getting much better value than 0.3 to 0.4 even in places where it will be very much off season (the first one is actually closing for the season the last day of our stay). I can provide other examples in France, Egypt, Hong Kong, Macau, China, Japan, Canada, Florida, California, Tennessee, Kansas, Colorado, Montana and Illinois, all of which have been a minimum of 0.57 cents per point (and ranged up to nearly 2 cents per point). I presented the Italy and Austria ones as upcoming examples at times that should present very poor value but were still well in excess of 0.4 cents.

The statement that I was responding to was very much a general statement without any examples of the poor valuation. To be sure, there are lots of opportunities to redeem between 0.3 and 0.4, but there are also better opportunities probably at least 25% of the time. If you spend your points on the 0.3 or 0.4 opportunities, I stand by my statement that you are wasting them when you could use them the 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 times that they would be more valuable. On this trip, I happened to find 3 opportunities to get more value and one location where Hilton does not provide value (and two where there isn't a Hilton).

In Vienna, the Hilton properties are not great and any centrally located Hiltons have a value in the 0.35 to 0.5 range, so I am using other points, rather than wasting Hilton points at average or less than average values for mediocre hotels or taking a hotel in a worse location, even though the value is well in excess of a penny a point (Hilton Garden Inn Vienna South).

Whenever I talk or write about points, I stress that diversification is key, so that you don't have to choose between a median or worse redemption value and cash, you can choose whichever kind of point will give you a top quartile value, preferably a top decile value. If you don't get a top quartile value, I think you are wasting your points. If you have massive piles of some points (and I think some people are in that position with Hilton points because they are so easy to earn), then wasting them for median value may not be a bad thing, but if the resource is limited, don't use them for any less than premium value.

For someone that isn't experienced in redeeming Hilton points and comes on here and sees that someone thinks that they are "steadily" only worth 0.3 to 0.4 cents (and sees others agree with it), I believe it is a disservice to them not to advise that there is better value to be found.
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