Originally Posted by
3Cforme
European legacies have been consolidating for over a decade: see AF+KL, BA+IB, LH+SN+LX+OS. They're on substantially the same path as U.S. carriers but they haven't hit the happy carrier count for sustainable, market cost-of-capital profits.
Let me make sure I get this right. Are you saying that the American aviation market is ahead of the curve and that the EU will have a similar situation in a decade or two? Is a "pseudo-regulated" market going to be the new norm worldwide, with only a few big carriers and everyone else virtually barred from entry or limited to "regional carrier" status, because it's not financially viable to operate a new continental network anymore? Will the Airline Deregulation Act eventually prove to be a big failure?
Originally Posted by
3Cforme
The lesson from JetBlue's successful entry? Bring money - lots of it.
Our country currently doesn't suffer from a lack of investment problem. The money is there. It's just not used to start a new airline.
The carriers are becoming increasingly more comfortable with a market where they copy each other's decline in service while raking in record profits (at least until the next recession hits). If there aren't any new birds to challenge that, there won't be any incentive to stop the race to the bottom, and loyalty programs will eventually be a thing of the past. And worst of all, we let them get away with that. As a frequent flyer, I sincerely hope it will never get that far.