Originally Posted by
pinniped
Not traveling this year for Thanksgiving, but the Sunday afternoon/evening is about the busiest possible time to pick.
It's possible that the flights are more full than they look by the seatmap, but have been booked by non-elites who don't have access to seats yet.
I'm aware of the first point - I fully expect that is the most expensive time during the holiday weekend. The observation is about fares for that same time relative to previous years. The seat maps I'm seeing have considerable amounts of empty non-preferred seats that anyone has access to.
The same flights I booked last year for $245 have been running $739 this year, booking into the same exact fare classes. ($699 if I'm willing to accept Basic Economy.) I don't ever expect $245 for Thanksgiving travel, but I'd pull the trigger around $400-$450 for the 700 mile flight. It just hasn't happened.
Normally I book 2-9 months in advance (whenever the fares hit reasonable levels), but with the planes so empty and fares still so high, I'm waiting until closer to Thanksgiving to book than I have since 2009. Definitely a gamble, but one I've gotten fairly good at after a million miles of flying... planes don't get filled with Thanksgiving travelers at $700 each.