Originally Posted by
jsloan
That's just not true. It takes quite a few non-BE passengers to make up for the revenue lost by an empty seat (due to book-away). It's entirely possible for BE to be revenue negative. Unfortunately, I don't think that it will be -- or DL would have dropped it already -- but I'd welcome it if it were.
This makes no sense. In a non-BE world, the vast majority of passengers on the plane have purchased the lowest fare class that was available at the time of booking for their cabin of service, whether they're interested in E+ or not. People looking to upgrade internationally will have bought up to W, and some people will have selected a flexible / unrestricted ticket, either due to uncertain plans or corporate travel policies. But most everyone else just looks at the lowest available economy / first price and goes from there.
I would just observe again that what delta did (be only on very lowest advanced purchase fares, and then you basically just lose an upgrade shot) is both less of a take away, and less likely to impact business travelers. I don't think we can make any assumptions about book-away from dl's experience. Delta did not report any book away impact, united has admitted to one.
But I think the killer is your second point. There are few travelers who will pay appreciably more to fly united at this point, but it is what united is in essence demanding, and for elites it is on many/most flights (it used to be all flights but they have backed off). That will cause a book away, and I think if it continues some elites to rethink trying to keep status in united, unwilling to pay extra each time they fly united.