If you don't mind me asking what is your annual ball park ( I see u are diamond) spend ?
i.e. are you a "high value" customer?
Do you use BRG a lot?
I tried ONCE in vegas hotel hopping with 1 nighters and it was the most frustrating kafakesqe experience ----I would up getting 2 hilton By my guest certs ( very valuable) escalating up corp ladder,--------- But I decide not to try any more, It not worth the headaches and high blood pressure.--- VEGAS is a market where you can find cheaper prices)

Plus I see when an other site has a lower price its cancellation policy is 1 day sooner--- or even 12 hours! (Hilton obviously requires it to allow them to sell at that price ) In my view they should do away with the guarantee as it creates more negative will.

The $50 is the deal breaker for HH. In my view they should have something vauge like , "if you don't feel you got the best deal on our site , contact us and we'll do our best to make you happy" and then if its $20 a night cheaper give the $20 , but not an extra $50 or give the option of $20 , or double points or double status stay or a spa credit, but keep it a open ended remedy and a vague qualifier but actually do it. denying 95% of claims is not a loyalty enhancer. Moreover I don't see why Hilton HAS to be the best deal. If you want points and status credit, book on Hilton, If you want to save $20 a night , and are ok with the 1 extra day cancellation policy book on Expedia.

Tiffany & co sells a commodity ( diamonds ) for more than the slock houses in the diamond district on 47 th street, Even as a non elite, if travel plans change , its easier to deal with the company website than a third part reseller.

When I need a new cell phone, I buy at the Verizon corporately owned retail stores, not "resellers"

The lower prices are seldom a real needle mover and inevitably there is a minor more restrictive term that disqualifies the match. i,.e A refundable rate with same cancellation policy but requires a credit card deposit , but Hilton site does not

what do people think is the actual payout rate , success rate of consumers?

I think HHonors is a great program , the 3 complaints I made in 17 years ( I am not a serial complainer) were all dealt with to my full satisfaction.
But the BRG needs to go.

This way they can get revenue from non honors members by allowing a nominal savings ( and paying small commissions) but save the expense pf point, miles.

Also remember that a non HHonors member booking on a third party site is hiighly likely to pay for breakfast at the hotel.