So is the answer going to be a devaluation of avios for short haul flights like they did for USA?
I think there's two different issue involved:
- the first is BAEC is a relatively easy program to sell awards from cos there's no redemption list.
AM has only five name slots to fill in the first year so it is relatively hard to sell small awards (intra-Asia) using an AM account. And both are considerably easier than PRC programs (Phoenixmiles, Eastermiles, Sky Pearl or Fortune Wings Club) with their 60-day waiting periods to add a name to redemption group.
BAEC basically lets you write in whoever you want for redemptions, tho we've seen BA audit shut down accounts that issue awards to many names too fast. Quite ideal for selling.
So I guess BA Audit's thinking is:
--- I don't want to implement a redemption list cos I'll get yelled at by non-Asia BAEC members (I can imagine the puns from the BA forum if they tried this)
--- if the miles broker issue long-dated awards I've got plenty of time to audit them at my leisure
--- so it's only the close-in awards I have to be worried about. After all possession is nine-tenths of the law. Solution? Block close-in availability
- the other issue is redemption chart arbitrage. Currently there's a benefit in redeeming Avios over Asia Miles for the first three tiers (e.g. for Economy R/T, HKG-TPE-HKG is 9,000 Avios vs 15,000 AM, HKG-BKK-HKT is 15,000 Avios vs 20,000 AM, HKG-NRT-HKG is 20,000 Avios vs 30,000 AM)
This is why there's considerable interest in Avios from bona fide travellers here. 20,000 Avios R/T to Japan plus certain other features (50% one-way pricing, lower cancellation fees) are the big drawcard for BAEC in HK.
Now BA can kill the golden goose by implementing US pricing for regional CX flights but they can kiss their member base in HK goodbye. It won't take much to panic the Avios crowd here.