This will probably be the last year I requalify for EP. The upgrade situation has become very bad, and going to spend-based upgrade priority will make it worse in January. In fact as someone who has no choice but to have lowest-fare economy through work, I have no chance of an upgrade after January 1st when competing with high-dollar international J spenders.
Given that, I have moved all of my leisure travel from AA to the cheapest first class on any airline, be it United, Delta, or Virgin. While I am now spending more to buy First Class, rather than upgrade, that money isn't going to AA all the time like it used to. On balance I'd say they are going to lose a a bit of net revenue by chasing away elites who used to give them their non-work discretionary spending.